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I shall post videos, graphs, news stories, and other material there. We shall use some of this material in class, and you may review the rest at your convenience. You will all receive invitations to post to the blog. (Please let me know if you do not get such an invitation.) I encourage you to use the blog in these ways:
To post questions or comments about the readings before we discuss them in class;
To follow up on class discussions with additional comments or questions.
To post relevant news items or videos.

There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges.


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Monday, February 10, 2020

Congressional Elections I

Simulation:  last  year's roles

CMC alum running for Congress:



Her main primary opponent also has a terrific ad:


Citizenship and the Census -- A CMC alum in the news -- after death!




Competition


  • Incumbents Usually Win 

  • House margins  

  • Senate margins
  • Slight decline in 2018


    •
    Control


  • Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party

  • Senate classes (this year is a "class 2" election)

  • Notwithstanding 2018, GOP "bench" is stronger than in the past




    • The House


  • Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating

  • Unintentional gerrymandering -- NYT article
  • Dramatic decline in districts with split results

  • GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts
  • Democrats have surged in suburbs



    • Strategery!

    Party identification, party brand


    Map, color-coded. The political party affiliations of the population of each U.S. state for 2018.


    Campaign Finance


  • "Hard money" contribution limits

  • Outside spending

  • New element:  digital ads


    •






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