2020 Simulation Roles

For simulation purposes, we assume a Democratic majority. Also for simulation purposes, we have Schumer and McConnell on the Foreign Relations Committee.

Judiciary

Democrats
Dianne Feinstein, California, Chair..Zenaida Huerta
Patrick Leahy, Vermont .. David Almaraz-Roman
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota..Daniela Corona
Mazie Hirono, Hawaii ..Janise Waites
Cory Booker, New Jersey..Miriam Farah
Kamala Harris, California .. Brooklyn Montgomery

Republicans

Lindsey Graham, South Carolina, Ranking .. Cameron Hendrickson
Ted Cruz, Texas .. Alexis Wilson
Ben Sasse, Nebraska .. Tara Mehra
Joni Ernst, Iowa .. Sam Horowitz
Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee .. Jason Newman
 .
Foreign Relations
Democrats
Bob Menendez, New Jersey, Chair .. Jensen Steady
Chuck Schumer, New York [added for simulation purposes] .. Gabe Blum
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire .. Will Grassle
Tim Kaine, Virginia .. Ben Culberson
Jeff Merkley, Oregon .. Augusta Lewis

Republicans

Jim Risch, Idaho, Ranking .. Cooper Pryde
Mitch McConnell, Kentucky [added for simulation] .. Jacob Lyle
Mitt Romney, Utah .. Torben Deese
Rand Paul, Kentucky .. Henry Schulz

Process II

Madison (Federalist 58) anticipated that the House would be more centralized than the Senate: " [In]
all legislative assemblies the greater the number composing them may be, the fewer will be the men who will in fact direct their proceedings."

• The committee system
• Organizing resolution
• Appointments and deals
• Hearings and celebrity testimony
• Markup
• A committee report
• Rules Committee
• The suspension calendar
• The end of open rules in the House
• Motion to proceed -- health care example
• Filling the tree -- Cruz gets personal
• Senate floor debate can get ... testy

Process I

LEGISLATION REALLY CAN PASS 

Also see last year's public lands bill.  

Congress.gov record of the bill

In two weeks, we shall read Jill Lawrence's account of a similar bill from a few years ago.

\

  Bill Drafting (Straus, ch. 2; Davidson,  225-227)

• Types of measures
• Drafting manual
• An example of legislative language:IDEA full funding
• Senate Legislative Counsel
• House Legislative Counsel

The Name Game

• The EARN IT Act
• The STOP STUPIDITY Act
• The EL CHAPO Act

Rules

• House Rules
• Senate Rules

Do They Read The Bills? No.  





John Conyers:



The fiscal cliff -- search for "algae"
The committee system

Leadership and Parties II

Speakership Elections -- and more from Matt Glassman

Factions and Member Organizations

Note:  even majorities of the president's party may split with the administration agenda.  See Democrats on trade in 1993 and 2014.






The Johnson Network

• The Favor Bank

The Johnson Intelligence System

• One week after become president, LBJ mentions his long relationship with J. Edgar Hoover (ab at 19:00).

The Johnson Procedure

• Unanimous consent agreement -- functional equivalent of a House rule

The Johnson Treatment

• Caro on LBJ, the House, and the Senate

LBJ in Frank Underwood's office

 

The politics of decapitation

Newt v. O'Neill 1984 (start clip at 9:30)

Pelosi Style  (see, esp. Van Hollen's description)




Pelosi Approval

Pelosi and AOC

Two sides of Pelosi and religion:




The Mom Look

Second Writing Assignment

1. Pick any bill from the 116th (2019-present) Congress. Explain its fate. Instead of giving a mere chronology, tell why the measure moved or stalled. What happened to previous versions? Which groups or blocs backed and fought it? Which strategies and tactics did its friends and foes use? Even if it failed or stalled, did it prompt the passage of a similar measure in a different form? Look at parliamentary strategies, major amendments, and roll calls. Again, you should explain the outcome, not just describe the process.  Some possible topics:

• HJ Res 30 (Russia sanctions)
• HR 8 (background checks)
• HR 1 (political reform)
• HR 4 (elections)
• HR 5 (LGBTQ Anti-Discrimination Protections)
• HJ Res 77 (Syria)
• S.J. Res 7 (Yemen)
• SJ Res 36 (Saudi arms sales)

2. Analyze a proposed reform of congressional procedure. Carefully explain arguments for and against the reform. Would it achieve its goal? Would it improve the operation of Congress? (The two questions are not necessarily the same.)  The Congressional Institute lists some ideas.  So does APSA, with contributions from Prof. Kathryn Pearson, an alum of this course.

3. Pick pending legislation that has not yet passed either house. Write a memo to its prime sponsor detailing a plausible strategy for securing its passage at least in one chamber. In your answer, consider all phases of the legislative process and take account of the influence of interest groups and the administration.

Get background from a source such as CQ Magazine where you may find the partisan breakdown of roll-call votes. (Use the hardcopy, or the online version at http://library.cqpress.com).

Other possible sources include:

• Congress.gov (http://www.congress.gov/) -- official site for bill summary and status
• GovTrack (http://www.govtrack.us/) – unofficial site for congressional information
• ProQuest Congressional (http://congressional.proquest.com/profiles/gis/search/basic/basicsearch ). -- many congressional documents including searchable Congressional Record. If your computer will not accept this URL, go through the library web page (http://libraries.claremont.edu). Click “databases,” then the letter “P,” then “ProQuest Congressional.”)
• Committee web pages, which usually contain testimony and text of reports. See http://www.house.gov/committees/ or https://www.senate.gov/committees/index.htm
• ProPublica tools and websites at https://projects.propublica.org/represent/ (BTW, app developer Jeremy Merrill is a CMC alum.)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Essays should be typed, double-spaced, and no more than five pages long. I will not read past the fifth page. 
• Cite your sources with endnotes in standard Turabian format. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays (as Word documents, not pdfs) to the Sakai dropbox by 11:59 PM, Saturday, March 7. I reserve the right to dock papers will one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

Leadership and Parties I

Georgia Senate race as a case study of the intersection of electoral politics and party leadership.

• The DCCC has a similar blacklist
• NRCC says it does not blacklist ... but it does.  
• Ditto DSCC

Women in Congress (Straus ch. 14)


Matt Glassman, who co-wrote and co-edited Party and Procedure in the United States Congress, teaches in our Washington Program. He talks about congressional leadership, starting around 18:00:



Two layers of power in Congress:  the party system and the committee system.

"I'm an appropriator, see. That's one of the places I was forged."  -- Nancy Pelosi

Love him or hate him, Mitch McConnell is very effective.

Elections Have Consequences: Impeachment

Hill leadership

• House
• Senate

Theories of party government (Davidson 146-149) and Edmund Burke:

In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!

Speakership Elections (Straus 45)

Factions and Intraparty Caucuses (Straus ch. 13) and Member Organizations

Note:  even majorities of the president's party may split with the administration agenda.  See Democrats on trade in 1993 and 2014.

Tentative Simulation Roles 2020

For simulation purposes, we assume a Democratic majority.  Also for simulation purposes, we have Schumer and McConnell on the Foreign Relations Committee.

Judiciary

Democrats

Dianne Feinstein, California, Chair
Patrick Leahy, Vermont
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota
Mazie Hirono, Hawaii
Cory Booker, New Jersey
Kamala Harris, California

Republicans

Lindsey Graham, South Carolina, Ranking
Ted Cruz, Texas
Ben Sasse, Nebraska
Joni Ernst, Iowa
Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee

Foreign Relations

Democrats

Bob Menendez, New Jersey, Chair
Chuck Schumer, New York [added for simulation purposes]
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire
Tim Kaine, Virginia
Jeff Merkley, Oregon

Republicans

Jim Risch, Idaho, Ranking
Mitch McConnell, Kentucky [added for simulation]
Mitt Romney, Utah
Rand Paul, Kentucky

A Fresh Example of a Fundraising Email

Just arrived in my in-box:

So I always say they’re lousy politicians, but they do two things. They’re vicious and mean. Vicious. Adam Schiff is a vicious, horrible person. Nancy Pelosi is a horrible person. And she wanted to impeach a long time ago when she said, I pray for the president. She doesn’t pray. She may pray but she prays for the opposite. But I doubt she prays at all. These are vicious people. -President Donald Trump, Feb 6, 2020 Fellow Patriot: Let’s face it: Nancy Pelosi broke the law when she tore up the President’s speech. It’s also clear that she’s lost her mind. If you agree that Nancy Pelosi has lost her mind and needs to be removed from Congress, please donate $45 to my campaign to defeat her this November. I’m John Dennis, the Republican candidate and businessman who is going to retire her from political office. As we all know, Pelosi threw a temper tantrum and ripped up the copy of the President’s speech. She didn’t just deface the President’s speech; she spat on our nation’s history, the Tuskegee airman, Rush Limbaugh, a little girl from Philadelphia, a mother weeping for her child, and a soldier returning home to his family. When questioned by the media, she had the audacity to claim she was justified:   “So, it was, in my view, a manifesto of mistruths, of falsehoods, blatantly, really dangerous to the well-being of the American people if they believed what he said. So, again we do not want the chamber of the House of Representatives to be used as a backdrop for one of his reality shows with unreality in his presentation.” Nancy’s actions were an absolute disgrace. As I’ve said for years, she is everything that is wrong with the Washington Swamp. The same swamp that President Trump is trying to drain. Please contribute $50 in the NEXT 24 HOURS to help us reach our $50,000 goal. If, like most Americans, you believe Pelosi has lost her mind and needs to be retired, then join my team with your urgent contribution TODAY! Imagine the epic tantrum that Nancy will throw in November when the voters in our district finally throw her out of office for acting like this? There’s no better way to show her just how much Americans have REJECTED her than by fundraising off her little stunt, which is why I want to raise another $50,000 in the NEXT 24 HOURS. Crushing Nancy and her socialist dreams is paramount this year, so I’m counting on YOU to step up, join my team, make sure Pelosi hears your voice and help me protect the American Dream. Pelosi and her cadre of socialists want revenge and a second bite at the impeachment apple. They want to force socialism upon your family and mine, and tax all of us into lifelong debt to pay for it. Please donate ANY AMOUNT TODAY from $5 to the maximum federal amount of $2,800 and help bring us closer to our goal of defeating Pelosi. As President Trump said, Pelosi is mean and vicious, so we can’t take anything for granted if you want to prevent a second impeachment and preserve our way of life. It will be an all hands-on deck effort if we're going to remove Nancy from Congress in the next eight months so please don’t hesitate to get involved. Yours in liberty,   John Dennis Republican for Congress Father, husband, businessman and patriot     PAID FOR BY JOHN DENNIS FOR CONGRESS

Congressional Elections II

Klobuchar & Kavanaugh

Money and Corruption: Duke Cunningham's Bribe Menu


And then Duncan Hunter

 


Senate:Decline in split delegations

The Non-Hispanic white vote. and the Hispanic population (states with greatest percentage growth)





Fundraisers (start around 3:15)



Campaign Finance and Party Committees

"Hard money" contribution limits

Party committees endorse and give pointers to PACs

Recruitment committees

Outside spending

Super PAC coordination loopholes (online b-roll)

New element:  digital ads

Presidential results by House district

Maybe the meanest ad, ever...

 The Funny Ad:



(Paulsen lost.)

The military ad (2016)

Kander lost.
The Inspiring Ad:

Approval:  the losses are more severe when the president is unpopular. Trump was unpopular.


Approval was highly polarized

Polarization has been increasing:

2018 Exits

Lots of R retirements

Political science forecasts

Lots of D candidates, with money

Senate races:  the map constrains Democratic gains

...and California

501 (c)(4) regulation

501 (c) (4)'s and how are they regulated- Carolina Rising


"Owens and other lawyers contacted by OpenSecrets Blog suggested groups like Carolina Rising that are pushing the limits of nonprofit status “are betting that the IRS won’t come looking.”

Levinson said that groups like Carolina Rising “can rest assured in the belief that the IRS and the FEC are unlikely to take any action.”

Indeed, data from four election cycles shows a growing amount of spending by these politically active organizations, and the IRS gives them a pass far more often than it takes decisive action." 

Congressional Elections I

Simulation:  last  year's roles

CMC alum running for Congress:



Her main primary opponent also has a terrific ad:


Citizenship and the Census -- A CMC alum in the news -- after death!




Competition

Incumbents Usually Win 

House margins  

Senate margins

Slight decline in 2018

Control

Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party

Senate classes (this year is a "class 2" election)

Notwithstanding 2018, GOP "bench" is stronger than in the past

The House

Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating

Unintentional gerrymandering -- NYT article

Dramatic decline in districts with split results

GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts

Democrats have surged in suburbs

Strategery!

Party identification, party brand

Campaign Finance

"Hard money" contribution limits

Outside spending

New element:  digital ads

Delegates vs. Trustees in the Senate

We’ve talked about the difference between delegates and trustees on Capitol Hill. During the impeachment proceedings and the subsequent trial, most congressmembers acted as delegates when voting. Few were willing to vote against their constituency and their party. In the Senate, the votes were split neatly along party lines with one notable exception. Senator Mitt Romney voted to convict President Trump on the abuse of power charge. His vote was in opposition to both his Utah constituency, which currently supports the president by an 8-point margin, and the rest of the Republican senators. He stands apart from the entire Senate as an elected official that stands in opposition to both his constituents and his party. Instead he chose to act solely in his best judgement and as a trustee of his voters.

https://kutv.com/news/local/romneys-job-approval-from-utah-voters-drops-significantly-during-impeachment 

Congressional Capacity

Pitzer alum running for the House (h/t Sam)

From Vital Statistics on Congress (essential reference)





Personal and Committee Staff

Constituent communication and its connection to congressional capacity and lawmaking

When advocacy groups target thousands of calls or emails at a single member of Congress, it's these low-level and in some cases unpaid interns and junior staffers they inundate. In one particular office the OpenGov Foundation staff observed, those interns sat side-by-side at a shared desk in a walk-in closet that was so small, one of them had to stand up in order to let the other one out. On the wall inside the closet, they'd taped a poster with a drawing of a window on it.

"We're looking at building capacity for Congress," Meag Doherty, one of the researchers, who previously worked as a congressional staffer, says of the tools OpenGov Foundation builds. "Seeing something like interns in a closet reminds me that is needed."

Report on constituent communication

Capacity

• Multiple charts
• Declining committee capacity

Staffs.......1995.......2015

CRS.........746..........609
GAO.....4,572.......2,989

CBO .........214.........235

Problems at CRS

The Imperial Presidency

Hamilton in Federalist 8: "It is of the nature of war to increase the executive at the expense of the legislative authority."

Tocqueville, p. 126: "If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."

"Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?”  --  Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State and former congressman from Kansas

Iowa, SOTU and Impeachment

Iowa rules explanation

The 2007 State of the Union. Watch and listen carefully at 12:30:

 

Last night was ... different



Republican chant:

“FOUR MORE YEARS, FOUR MORE YEARS” yell the Republican congress! pic.twitter.com/PLbAei47sY

— Students For Trump (@TrumpStudents) February 5, 2020

Democratic chant

WATCH: Democrats chant "HR 3," referencing bill on drug prices, in response to President Trump's call for legislation to lower prescription drug prices. pic.twitter.com/zqbUvoldWB

— NBC News (@NBCNews) February 5, 2020

Collins and other acquittal senator say Trump has learned a lesson.  Trump disagrees.

Congress in Multiple Dimensions

FOR WEDNESDAY, READ:

• https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/how-to-strengthen-congress
• https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2020-01-21/imperial-presidency-alive-and-well (full text in email)

In Home Style, members try to convey

• Qualification
• Identification
• Empathy

AOC-DC questions Michael Cohen:



Consider the characteristics of NY 14 as AOC goes local:




And in the Senate:

"What you have to understand about my people is that they are a noble people. Humility is their form of pride. It is their strength; it is their weakness. And if you can humble yourself before them they will do anything you ask."  -- Frank Underwood

See a 1993 clip of McCain talking to little old ladies in Arizona.

Parties

Demographic sorting

Four Strategic Postures Since 1996 (House, by election year) 

                                                Majority                              Minority

            Pres Party                    Dems 08                             GOP 06, 18

                                                GOP 00, 02, 04, 16             Dem 96, 98, 10,12,14

           

            Out Party                    GOP 96,* 98, 10,12,14        GOP 08

                                                Dem 06, 18*                        Dem 00, 02, 04, 16

* Impeachment

And there are even more flavors, as Matt Glassman points out.

Staff and staff allocations

FOUR WAYS OF BEING A MEMBER:

• DISTRICT (OR STATE) SERVANTS
• COMMITTEE SPECIALISTS
• PARTY LEADERS
• NATIONAL POLITICAL FIGURES

One major difference between the chambers is that few sitting House members run for president, and seldom get far when they do. But a fairly large fraction of current senators have gone for the White House:

• Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 1996, 2000
• Michael Bennet (D-CO), 2000
• Cory Booker (D-NJ) 2020
• Ted Cruz (R-TX) 2016
• Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 2020
• Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 2016
• Kamala Harris (D-CA), 2020
• Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 2020
• Rand Paul (R-KY) 2016
• Marco Rubio (R-FL) 2016
• Bernard Sanders (I-VT) 2016, 2020
• Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2020
• and Tim Kaine (D-VA) ran for vice president in 2016

In the House, see

• Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), 2020
• Eric Swalwell (D-CA) 2020

STAFF ALLOCATIONS AND CONGRESSIONAL CAPACITY

From Matt Glassman:

Geography Matters to Members of Congress. The Missouri Delegation is Privately Displeased.

There are Islands of Civility in Congress

Rory E. Riley-Topping at The Hill:

At a time when partisan bickering has become the norm on Capitol Hill...a showing of bipartisanship and civility there deserves mention.

Enter the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, led by new Chairman Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Ranking Member Jon Tester (D-Mont.). At a markup this week, where the Committee unanimously passed nine bills, Moran opened the meeting by stating he hoped to have a “non-contentious, relatively short, but meaningful markup.” He successfully achieved that goal.

Moran also followed through on this sentiment by complimenting Tester during the markup, noting that they both serve on the same five committees, including the Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, and that, although they may disagree, they nonetheless have always worked well together.

“While a lot of momentous and contentious and historic things go on in the United States Senate, as we’ve seen for the last few weeks, I hope this Committee will continue to be a haven of bipartisanship and comradery and working together . . . sometimes we forget what’s important. But those who served our country served for purposes unrelated to democrat or republican, and I will do everything I can to ensure that this committee remains that place where we put veterans well-above that partisanship,” relayed Moran in his opening remarks.

Moran’s remarks are all the more important given the legacy of his predecessor, retired Senator Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), as well as the recent descent into partisan bickering seen over on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.