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I shall post videos, graphs, news stories, and other material there. We shall use some of this material in class, and you may review the rest at your convenience. You will all receive invitations to post to the blog. (Please let me know if you do not get such an invitation.) I encourage you to use the blog in these ways:
To post questions or comments about the readings before we discuss them in class;
To follow up on class discussions with additional comments or questions.
To post relevant news items or videos.

There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges.


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Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Congressional Elections II



House elections (from last time)

At The Atlantic, Ron Brownstein and Leah Askarinam offer important data:











"Follow the Money" (which Deep Throat did not say)






  • "Hard money" contribution limits






  • Outside spending


  • Data


  • Lee Drutman reported in 2014:
    new report from Daniel Tokaji and Renata Strause at The Ohio State University’s Election Law @ Moritz is out today, and it provides an excellent overview. “The New Soft Money: Outside Spending in Congressional Elections” is based on interviews with former members, campaign operatives and other staffers. It’s quite wide ranging, and worth reading in full.
    ...



    Legally, campaigns and independent groups like super PACs are prohibited from coordinating. After all, that’s what makes them “independent groups.” But as this report reveals, there is a delicate dance to coordination. And operatives have figured the moves.
    The primary move in the coordination two-step involves changing partners. As one operative said: “It’s all operatives moving
 back and forth between the parties
 and the groups and the campaigns 
– and it’s mostly people who can
 finish each other’s sentences.”
    Here’s former Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., calling the idea of independence “nonsense”:
    So this whole idea well, oh, they don’t coordinate, therefore it’s really independent is just nonsense. If you look at who makes up these organizations, on all sides, they’re loaded with political operatives. They know the way these campaigns are run, modern campaigns. They can see for themselves what’s up on the air. They can see the polling, a lot of it’s public. Some of it’s, you know not public but pretty much the same thing as what’s public. So they don’t need to talk to anybody in the campaign in order to know what to do.
    And here’s an anonymous campaign operative, saying more or less the same thing: “At the end of the day, it’s all just kind of a fiction – it’s just kind of a farce, the whole campaign finance non-coordination thing.”

    Sometimes the dance involves an outside group leading, and a candidate following. That is, candidates look to see what outside groups might be around and willing to step in, and then try to appeal to those outside groups. Here’s former Rep. Joe Walsh, D-Ill., explaining how the potential of outside groups stepping in shaped his campaign strategy:
    I think early on that summer you begin to hear of or learn of other outside groups or individuals or interests who may have an interest in helping. And, you know, again, ... it’s my downfall ... [I] can’t tell a lie. You factor that into how you’re going to run your campaign. You don’t for sure know that this big wealthy guy’s coming in but you’ve heard he is. You don’t exactly know how much he’s going to spend, but you look at what you have to do, what Duckworth’s going to do. And so a campaign factors it into your over – all game plan.
    Operatives also described the “b-roll” trick that Jon Stewart recently called attention to with his “McConnelling” segment. As Tokaji and Strause explain, “The most common signaling tactic we heard about in our interviews was the quiet release of 'b-roll,' high-resolution photographs, and targeted talking points, either available through a hidden link on the campaign’s website or through some other microsite or YouTube account.”

    Herrnson, p. 84:

    Why relatively little on TV?  Consider districts and DMAs

    The brand:  latest poll



    Tuesday, January 30, 2018

    Big data and gerrymandering

    After discussing gerrymandering a bit last class and reading about it in Davidson and Connelly, I was interested in how exactly gerrymadered districts were mapped. I found this video from the Atlantic that talks about the actual process of gerrymandering. Particularly, it talks about the calculation of preferences and predictions of votes that leads to the manipulated district bounds. Here it is, for anyone else who is interested:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=kBIz6SB_JLc

    Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz. Who will prevail?

    "With $2.4 million haul, Beto O'Rourke easily outraised Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to close out 2017" 

    Link to Texas Tribune article here.


    Few people believe a Democrat can win Texas in 2018. But as we discussed during our last class session, fundraising is a key determinant in the outcome of congressional elections, especially for challengers. Of course, one could use the counterexample of Wendy Davis, who lost to Greg Abbott by over 20 points despite initially outraising him in the 2014 Texas Gubernatorial election. There’s still a long way to go till the Senate election in November, so time will tell whether O’Rourke can outraise Cruz in the long run. Regardless of total fundraising, however, a wide range of obstacles lie before the El Paso congressman. 

    What are your thoughts?

    Monday, January 29, 2018

    Proofread!

    Congressional Elections I

    The Big Picture

    Sunday, January 28, 2018

    Congressional Fundraising

    This week's reading (particularly chapter 4) brought up a lot of harsh truths about congressional fundraising. A few years ago, John Oliver did a great overview of the issue. Even if you're not a big John Oliver fan, his interview with former Rep. Steve Israel (14:30) is eye-opening. Curious to hear what anyone thinks about it!

    -Anna

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ylomy1Aw9Hk

    Davidson Ch. 3

    I found the section on gerrymandering especially interesting. Apportionment and districting seem to shape Congress more than most people realize, making me wonder about the role of state legislatures and state elections. Generally, fewer people vote in state legislature races, but these races are extremely important, especially when it comes to partisan gerrymandering. Because state legislatures choose how to draw district maps, these elections can influence who can/will run for office, and win, for the next decade. Until the Supreme Court lays out more consistent guidelines as to what is and is not allowable gerrymandering, state elections, and the small percentage of people who vote in such, may have a disproportionate amount of influence on the makeup of Congress.
    -Nicole

    Wednesday, January 24, 2018

    Two Congresses, Two Chambers, Two Parties, and Four Strategic Postures

    Two Congresses:  Hill Style and Home Style



    "What you have to understand about my people is that they are a noble people. Humility is their form of pride. It is their strength; it is their weakness. And if you can humble yourself before them they will do anything you ask."  -- Frank Underwood

    In Home Style, members try to convey

    Qualification
    Identification
    Empathy

    See a 1993 clip of McCain talking to little old ladies in Arizona.




    Four Strategic Postures Since 2000 (House, by election year)

                                                    Majority                      Minority

                Pres Party                    Dems 08                     GOP 06
                                                    GOP 00, 02, 04, 16    Dem 10,12,14
               
                Out Party                    GOP 10,12,14             GOP 08
                                                    Dem 06                       Dem 00, 02, 04, 16

    A second look at Federalist 51:
    But it is not possible to give to each department an equal power of self-defense. In republican government, the legislative authority necessarily predominates. The remedy for this inconveniency is to divide the legislature into different branches; and to render them, by different modes of election and different principles of action, as little connected with each other as the nature of their common functions and their common dependence on the society will admit. It may even be necessary to guard against dangerous encroachments by still further precautions.
    From the Census
    The average size of a congressional  district based on the 2010 Census  apportionment population will be  710,767, more than triple the average  district size of 210,328 based on the  1910 Census apportionment, and 63,815  more than the average size based on  Census 2000 (646,952). Based on the  2010 Census apportionment, the state  with the largest average district size will  be Montana (994,416), and the state with  the smallest average district size will be  Rhode Island (527,624).
    One major difference between the chambers is that few House members run for president, and seldom get far when they do (see Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, Duncan Hunter and Dennis Kucinich). But a fairly large fraction of senators have gone for the White House:
    • Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 1996, 2000
    • Ted Cruz (R-TX) 2016
    • Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 2016
    • Orrin Hatch (R-UT) 2000
    • John McCain (R-AZ) 2000, 2008
    • Rand Paul (R-KY) 2016
    • Marco Rubio (R-FL) 2016
    • Bernard Sanders (I-VT) 2016
    Several other members may run in 2020:  Kamala Harris (D-CA), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Cory Booker (D-NJ)

    Tuesday, January 23, 2018

    Connelly Jr., Ch 7.

    Some thoughts about the essay, any feedback or discussion would be great.

    I like the essay, but I think the "Administrative Presidency" section is superfluous. A lot of the history in this section could have been condensed or removed because it is tangential to the central thesis that, "the first branch of government has slipped in relative importance to the executive branch."

    The "From Constitutional to Popular Leader" section flows logically and is convincing. I would appreciate some quantitative metrics, such as number of executive orders per year, number of appointments that the President makes, and definitely some analysis related to budgetary growth- both proportionally and in absolute terms. It is prudent to add some numbers to illustrate the "expansive federal bureaucracy handling the enlarged scope of the federal government's activities."

    I would find this essay more convincing if it included a section about how Congress's powers have increased or changed. It is narrowly focused on the actions of the Executive, but this argument could be bolstered by some explicit discussion of Congress's action, responses to increasing Presidential power, or inaction.

    Just some thoughts- they may be ill-informed or I may have overlooked some points,
    Reid

    Monday, January 22, 2018

    Congress as an Institution

    Trump address to joint session (technically not a State of the Union):
    \



    The president is both head of state and head of government. In the UK, the monarch is the head of state.



    The British PM takes questions from MPs.

     

    First Assignment, Spring 2018

    Pick one:
    Essays should reflect an understanding of class readings and discussions. Many resources, including CQ Weekly and Politics in America are at Honnold Library/Databases/CQ Library. See The Almanac of American Politics either in hardcopy at Honnold or via the library website. Consult other sources as well. See: http://www1.cmc.edu/pages/faculty/JPitney/congress.html

    The specifications:
    • Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than three pages long. I will not read past the third page. 
    • Please submit all papers in this course as Word documents, not pdfs.
    • Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style.  Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
    • Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Friday, February 2. Papers will drop one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

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