Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL-13) has entered the race for FL Governor. Now a Democrat, Crist ran for Governor in 2014 as a Democrat, ran for US Senate in 2010 as an Independent, and served as a Republican governor from 2007-2011.
We talked about him in class before, noting how an embrace from President Obama tanked his popularity among Republicans toward the end of his governorship - now that embrace and those words of approval from Obama feature prominently in his debut campaign ad (included in link above).
Crist is the first high-profile Democratic entrant, but the field is about to get bigger. Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried, the only Democrat to win statewide since 2012, has not officially declared, but is producing slick advertisements touting her accomplishments as ag commissioner, support of medical/recreational marijuana, and criticism of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) (how many ag commissioners release campaign-style videos just for fun?). She also regularly retweets posts saying she would be a great governor, etc., making her intentions clear. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL-10) is also publicly mulling a run for either Senate or Governor.
So why would Crist enter the race with a high-profile Dem already all but officially declared? Republicans have firm control of FL redistricting and Crist represents a seat with an EVEN Cook PVI that will almost certainly grow more Republican in 2022. A similar trend is seen with Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL-7) who has all but officially declared her intention to run against Sen. Marco Rubio in 2022 - her district is D+3, but likely to become more Republican in 2022.
Regardless who the Democratic nominee for governor is, it will be hard to unseat DeSantis who enjoys a healthy approval rating (55% in this poll from early April - when I went to the Florida Politics website page to get this approval poll link I got an ad attached below). DeSantis is already raising massive sums of money (over $6 million since the beginning of March) as he becomes a popular conservative figure that many believe is going to run for president in 2024. This has drawn comparisons to George W. Bush, who raised money from a national network of donors for his 1998 TX Governor's race and then benefitted from those connections in 2000.
Post-posting note - Zac Anderson, a Southwest Florida political reporter from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune, tweeted that Crist's kickoff event was in a Black neighborhood and featured a gospel choir. Considering Crist's early support of Joe Biden and similar moderate profile, I wonder if he is explicitly trying to remake Biden's 2020 primary coalition built on strong support among Black voters, which powered him to a 39 point victory in the state (even before his SC and Super Tuesday victories, Biden polled strongly in Florida).
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