ABOUT THIS BLOG

I shall post videos, graphs, news stories, and other material there. We shall use some of this material in class, and you may review the rest at your convenience. You will all receive invitations to post to the blog. (Please let me know if you do not get such an invitation.) I encourage you to use the blog in these ways:
To post questions or comments about the readings before we discuss them in class;
To follow up on class discussions with additional comments or questions.
To post relevant news items or videos.

There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges.


Search This Blog

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Deals and the Shadow Congress

Adjourn at 10:35 for preliminary meetings.  Harrison Steck-- Shaheen from 2025 -- will be present to provide guidance and answer questions.  From my presidency course, recruit a president and cabinet members.

For your write-ups, explain how what you learn this week could guide your activity in the simulation.

Questions on the assignment?

For Monday, read Davidson, ch. 10.

Expertise and acceptable sources of information.

  • "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"
  • Stipulated knowledge and CBO.
  • Knowledge levels of members.    
Repeated interactions
The Secret or Shadow Congress


The final two-plus years of the Trump administration, for example, began with a government shutdown and featured two presidential impeachments. But they also saw the passage of a major conservation bill, a new trade agreement, significant criminal-justice reform, and several pandemic-relief packages.


In 2022: The House overwhelmingly passed legislation to reform the beleaguered U.S. Postal Service. Days later the Senate approved, without a single vote in opposition, a bill proposed in response to the #MeToo movement that bans the use of forced arbitration in workplace sexual-harassment and assault cases. A bipartisan group of senators also announced an agreement on a long-stalled reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, likely clearing the way for its passage.


Update 

One key is the presence of institutionalists (Cole and DeLauro -- and Thune!)

Another key is privacy

 Think about the downsides of public meetings

  • Who actually attends (or watches) and takes notes?
  • How do members behave?  What kindsof questions do they ask?

A third key is the range of potential beneficiaries:



 Image result for public lands forests map


The vehicle



Suspension of the rules gets around germaneness issues.

More recent examples:

Monday, March 2, 2026

Making Deals

Adjourn at 10:35 for preliminary meetings.  From my presidency course, recruit a president and cabinet members.

Iran attack, politics, and war powers

Questions on the assignment?

For Wednesday, read

Types of deals
Other conditions of negotiation

Parties
  • Calculation for majority:  which minority votes do you seek first?
  • Calculation for minority:  deal or fight? Internal political pressure: bombthrowers v. responsible partners.
  • Messaging:  selling the agreement to the relucant.  Again, LBJ and the 1957 Civil Rights Act.

What are the costs and benefits of transparency?


Expertise and acceptable sources of information.
  • "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"
  • Stipulated knowledge and CBO.
  • Knowledge levels of members
    
Repeated interactions
  • Short-term:  confidence building
  • Longer term: reputations, grudges, and the Favor Bank
  • How does partisanship hinder interaction?  Workaround: "gangs."

Penalty defaults

Policy Windows
When you win big you can have anything you want for a time. You come home with that big landslide and there isn’t a one of them [in Congress] who’ll stand in your way. No, they’ll be glad to be aboard and to have their photograph taken with you and be part of all that victory. They’ll come along and they’ll give you almost everything you want for a while and then they’ll turn on you. They always do. They’ll lay in waiting, waiting for you to make a slip and you will. They’ll give you almost everything and then they’ll make you pay for it. They’ll get tired of all those columnists writing how smart you are and how weak they are and then the pendulum will swing back.





Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Sim 2026: Who Is Playing Whom?

 Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Democrats

  • Bernie Sanders VT (chair) Bernie Santos
  • Patty Murray WA Camden Fujimoto
  • Tammy Baldwin WI  Bea Dramm
  • Maggie Hassan NH Greta Long
  • Tim Kaine VA Nikhil Chand
  • Chuck Schumer NY  Rohit Iyer

Republicans

  • Bill Cassidy LA (ranking) Scott Sloop
  • Rand Paul KY Sophie Prosper
  • Markwayne Mullin OK Zoe Mui
  • Tim Scott SC Josephine Jett
  • John Thune SD David Yusten

Judiciary

Democrats

  • Dick Durbin IL (chair) Ridhi Patel
  • Sheldon Whitehouse RI Juan Pozo
  • Amy Klobuchar MN Logan Fang
  • Cory Booker NJ Mia Balonick
  • Adam Schiff CA Anjali Nuggehalli

Republicans

  • Chuck Grassley IA (ranking) Solvej Eversoll
  • Lindsey Graham SC Soumya Rman
  • Ted Cruz TX Catalina de la Peña
  • Josh Hawley MO Shannon Bennitt
  • John N. Kennedy LA Daniel Bazmi

Congress and Interest Groups

For next time: "Making Deals in Congress" (Canvas)

Questions on the assignment?

Role selection

And for the weekly write-up, draw on Davidson to describe your simulation senator's approach to legislating.  What kinds of bills are your going to support or oppose?

---------------

What is lobbying?

Interest group ratings (375-76)

WHY WAS THE NRA POWERFUL? IT IS NOT THE PAC CONTRIBUTION (Note that NRA has gotten weaker)
How many Americans are economically dependent on fossil fuels? The industry itself and industries that depend on fossil fuels


Think tanks and Consultants

Philanthropy

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Congressional Decisions

For Wednesday:   
About the sim:

Vote-a-Rama (amendments mostly symbolic and nonbinding)


Rule XIV of the Senate:
The Senate’s standing committees play an essential part in the legislative process, as they select the small percentage of the bills introduced each Congress that, in their judgment, deserve the attention of the Senate as a whole, and as they recommend amendments to these bills based on their expert knowledge and experience. Most bills are routinely referred to the committee with appropriate jurisdiction as soon as they are introduced. However, paragraph 4 of Rule XIV permits a Senator to bypass a committee referral and have the bill placed directly on the Calendar of Business, with exactly the same formal status the bill would have if it had been considered and reported by a Senate committee.

Mr. MCCONNELL. Mr. President, I understand that there is a bill at the desk, and I ask for its first reading.

The PRESIDING OFFICER. The clerk will read the bill by title for the first time.

The senior assistant legislative clerk read as follows:

A bill (S. 1035) to extend authority relating to roving surveillance, access to business records, and individual terrorists as agents of foreign powers under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 and for other purposes.

Mr. MCCONNELL. I now ask for a second reading and, in order to place the bill on the calendar under the provisions of rule XIV, I object to my own request.

The PRESIDING OFFICER. Objection having been heard, the bill will be read for the second time on the next legislative day.2

Hotlining -- a 2019 example -- a short video
Earmarking and Phonemarking
BTU'd
Alternative to conference: "message between houses" or Ping-ponging

Individual Decisions

Specialization and the importance of biography (Davidson, p. 251)

Timing

Party Unity (Davidson p. 260). TO ANALYZE A ROLL-CALL VOTE, LOOK AT THE EXCEPTIONS: THE MEMBERS WHO BROKE PARTY RANKS.  Marshall Bessey thesis on the impeachment Republicans 

From Roll Call:

 


DO NOT TRY TO REDUCE ROLL CALL VOTES TO CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS. Consider primary and general election constituencies.


History and DW-Nominate (Davidson 267)




This measurement is extremely influential in political science. It is also extremely flawed.

Bargaining and cues
  • Logrolling
  • Implicit v. Explicit Bargaining
  • Cosponsorship (could be part of your paper) and Dear Colleague

Imp

Simulation Roles

In our simulation metaverse, Trump is still president but Democrats are in the majority.  If class enrollment remains steady, we will have a 5-5 ratio on Judiciary, but with the chair having two votes.

HELP and Judiciary got the most support, and several of you wisely mentioned the cast of characters as a reason for picking them.  The class is not large enough to include every IRL member, but the roster below seems representative.  You can see the real rosters here:

https://www.help.senate.gov/about/members

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/members

If you have suggestions for any names below that we could swap out for an actual member, let me know.

Note that Thune and Schumer are not actually on HELP, but we need the party leaders in the simulation.  And both have taken many issue positions on the topics that HELP covers.


Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Democrats

  • Bernie Sanders VT (chair)
  • Patty Murray WA
  • Tammy Baldwin WI
  • Maggie Hassan NH
  • Tim Kaine VA
  • Chuck Schumer NY (added for sim purposes)

Republicans

  • Bill Cassidy LA (ranking)
  • Rand Paul KY
  • Markwayne Mullin OK
  • Tim Scott SC
  • John Thune SD (added for sim purposes)

Judiciary

Democrats

  • Dick Durbin IL (chair)
  • Sheldon Whitehouse RI
  • Amy Klobuchar MN
  • Cory Booker NJ
  • Adam Schiff CA

Republicans

  • Chuck Grassley IA (ranking)
  • Lindsey Graham SC
  • Ted Cruz TX
  • Josh Hawley MO
  • John N. Kennedy LA

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Process


For Monday, Davidson, ch. 9.

Colbert, Talarico and the FCC

Keep an eye on the Iran situation.  We will later discuss war powers.

Questions on the assignment?

Further thoughts on simulation committees?  For your writeup, everybody pick two and tell why they would be good for our purposes.  On Monday, I will announce the committees and roles.  On Wednesday, you will choose the roles.

Most bills die. Go to Vital Statistics on Congress  and look at chapter 6.  In the 118th Congress:

House -- Ratio of passed/introduced = 995 /12,547 ≈ 0.079 or 7.9%
Senate --  Ratio of passed/introduced = 1,029/6,759 ≈ 0.152 or 15.2%

Why do so many members introduce so many doomed bills?

Committee chairs

                                House                                    Senate
                                                                                                  
Main FactorParty steering committee choiceSeniority on the committee
Republican Term Limits6 years (3 terms)6 years (3 terms)
Democratic Term LimitsNoneNone
Final ApprovalVoted by party caucus/conferenceVoted by party conference


Committee basics
Hearings
Markup

  • Unanimous consent agreements (Davidson 236-238)
  • Filibuster
  • Cloture




Blog Archive