Making Deals

Adjourn at 10:35 for preliminary meetings.  From my presidency course, recruit a president and cabinet members.

Iran attack, politics, and war powers

Questions on the assignment?

For Wednesday, read

• Russell Berman, "The Shadow Congress," The Atlantic, February 20, 2022.
• Plus: "The Best-Kept Secret in Washington," a short dialogue between Kevin R. Kosar at the AEI website. ("Secret Congress" means the same thing as "Shadow Congress.")

Types of deals

• Distributive
• Integrative 
• "The ankle bone is connected to the shoulder bone."  Meaning?
• In 1957, LBJ gives support to Hells Canyon power project in exchange for votes for the 1957 Civil Rights Act.
• In 1964, as president, he gets Rep. Wayne Hays to vote for a farm bill in exchange for freight rates.

Other conditions of negotiation

Parties

• Calculation for majority:  which minority votes do you seek first?
• Calculation for minority:  deal or fight? Internal political pressure: bombthrowers v. responsible partners.
• Messaging:  selling the agreement to the relucant.  Again, LBJ and the 1957 Civil Rights Act.

What are the costs and benefits of transparency?

Expertise and acceptable sources of information.

• "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"
• Stipulated knowledge and CBO.
• Knowledge levels of members

    
Repeated interactions

• Short-term:  confidence building
• Longer term: reputations, grudges, and the Favor Bank
• How does partisanship hinder interaction?  Workaround: "gangs."

Penalty defaults

• Debt ceiling: alum explains why it was problematic  in 2023)
• The agreement led to McCarthy's ouster.

Policy Windows

• Disasters:  9/11
• Books & articles about existing problems
• Political shifts.  But note LBJ's words to David Halberstam: 

When you win big you can have anything you want for a time. You come home with that big landslide and there isn’t a one of them [in Congress] who’ll stand in your way. No, they’ll be glad to be aboard and to have their photograph taken with you and be part of all that victory. They’ll come along and they’ll give you almost everything you want for a while and then they’ll turn on you. They always do. They’ll lay in waiting, waiting for you to make a slip and you will. They’ll give you almost everything and then they’ll make you pay for it. They’ll get tired of all those columnists writing how smart you are and how weak they are and then the pendulum will swing back.

Sim 2026: Who Is Playing Whom?

 Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Democrats

• Bernie Sanders VT (chair) Bernie Santos
• Patty Murray WA Camden Fujimoto
• Tammy Baldwin WI  Bea Dramm
• Maggie Hassan NH Greta Long
• Tim Kaine VA Nikhil Chand
• Chuck Schumer NY  Rohit Iyer

Republicans

• Bill Cassidy LA (ranking) Scott Sloop
• Rand Paul KY Sophie Prosper
• Markwayne Mullin OK Zoe Mui
• Tim Scott SC Josephine Jett
• John Thune SD David Yusten

Judiciary

Democrats

• Dick Durbin IL (chair) Ridhi Patel
• Sheldon Whitehouse RI Juan Pozo
• Amy Klobuchar MN Logan Fang
• Cory Booker NJ Mia Balonick
• Adam Schiff CA Anjali Nuggehalli

Republicans

• Chuck Grassley IA (ranking) Solvej Eversoll
• Lindsey Graham SC Soumya Rman
• Ted Cruz TX Catalina de la Peña
• Josh Hawley MO Shannon Bennitt
• John N. Kennedy LA Daniel Bazmi

Congress and Interest Groups

For next time: "Making Deals in Congress" (Canvas)

Questions on the assignment?

Role selection

And for the weekly write-up, draw on Davidson to describe your simulation senator's approach to legislating.  What kinds of bills are your going to support or oppose?

---------------

What is lobbying?

• Lobby numbers
• Deregistration and The "Daschle Loophole" 
• A graphic

Interest group ratings (375-76)

• LCV
• NTU

WHY WAS THE NRA POWERFUL? IT IS NOT THE PAC CONTRIBUTION (Note that NRA has gotten weaker)

• Always think about the grassroots. How many households have guns?

How many Americans are economically dependent on fossil fuels? The industry itself and industries that depend on fossil fuels

• 
  

Think tanks and Consultants

Recognition and awards

Philanthropy

• Politicians' charities and government relations
• Rent-a-friend as deep lobbying
• Lobbyist cites letter that he ghost-wrote!
• A summary

 Foreign lobbying (pp. 393-394)

• Canadian efforts right now
• Butina (and a postscript)
• Qatar and think tanks

Congressional Decisions

For Wednesday:   

• Lord of the  Flies.  If you cannot be present, ask another student to represent you.
• Read ch. 13.
• State of the Union
• A brief history: prime time in 1965, out-party response in 1966
• See the 2020 version.

About the sim:

• Last year's roles.  Consult with students still on campus.
• Read 2024 sim handbook. This year will be similar, with new dates and rules.
• See video of past simulations: here, here, and here.

Vote-a-Rama (amendments mostly symbolic and nonbinding)

Rule XIV of the Senate:

The Senate’s standing committees play an essential part in the legislative process, as they select the small percentage of the bills introduced each Congress that, in their judgment, deserve the attention of the Senate as a whole, and as they recommend amendments to these bills based on their expert knowledge and experience. Most bills are routinely referred to the committee with appropriate jurisdiction as soon as they are introduced. However, paragraph 4 of Rule XIV permits a Senator to bypass a committee referral and have the bill placed directly on the Calendar of Business, with exactly the same formal status the bill would have if it had been considered and reported by a Senate committee.

Mr. MCCONNELL. Mr. President, I understand that there is a bill at the desk, and I ask for its first reading.

The PRESIDING OFFICER. The clerk will read the bill by title for the first time.

The senior assistant legislative clerk read as follows:

A bill (S. 1035) to extend authority relating to roving surveillance, access to business records, and individual terrorists as agents of foreign powers under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 and for other purposes.

Mr. MCCONNELL. I now ask for a second reading and, in order to place the bill on the calendar under the provisions of rule XIV, I object to my own request.

The PRESIDING OFFICER. Objection having been heard, the bill will be read for the second time on the next legislative day.2

Hotlining -- a 2019 example -- a short video
Earmarking and Phonemarking
BTU'd
Alternative to conference: "message between houses" or Ping-ponging

Individual Decisions

Specialization and the importance of biography (Davidson, p. 251)

• Doctors
• Cotton and the military

Timing

Party Unity (Davidson p. 260). TO ANALYZE A ROLL-CALL VOTE, LOOK AT THE EXCEPTIONS: THE MEMBERS WHO BROKE PARTY RANKS.  Marshall Bessey thesis on the impeachment Republicans 

From Roll Call:

 

DO NOT TRY TO REDUCE ROLL CALL VOTES TO CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS. Consider primary and general election constituencies.


History and DW-Nominate (Davidson 267)




This measurement is extremely influential in political science. It is also extremely flawed.

Bargaining and cues

• Logrolling
• Implicit v. Explicit Bargaining
• Cosponsorship (could be part of your paper) and Dear Colleague

Imp

Simulation Roles

In our simulation metaverse, Trump is still president but Democrats are in the majority.  If class enrollment remains steady, we will have a 5-5 ratio on Judiciary, but with the chair having two votes.

HELP and Judiciary got the most support, and several of you wisely mentioned the cast of characters as a reason for picking them.  The class is not large enough to include every IRL member, but the roster below seems representative.  You can see the real rosters here:

https://www.help.senate.gov/about/members

https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/members

If you have suggestions for any names below that we could swap out for an actual member, let me know.

Note that Thune and Schumer are not actually on HELP, but we need the party leaders in the simulation.  And both have taken many issue positions on the topics that HELP covers.

Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

Democrats

• Bernie Sanders VT (chair)
• Patty Murray WA
• Tammy Baldwin WI
• Maggie Hassan NH
• Tim Kaine VA
• Chuck Schumer NY (added for sim purposes)

Republicans

• Bill Cassidy LA (ranking)
• Rand Paul KY
• Markwayne Mullin OK
• Tim Scott SC
• John Thune SD (added for sim purposes)

Judiciary

Democrats

• Dick Durbin IL (chair)
• Sheldon Whitehouse RI
• Amy Klobuchar MN
• Cory Booker NJ
• Adam Schiff CA

Republicans

• Chuck Grassley IA (ranking)
• Lindsey Graham SC
• Ted Cruz TX
• Josh Hawley MO
• John N. Kennedy LA

Process

For Monday, Davidson, ch. 9.

Colbert, Talarico and the FCC

Keep an eye on the Iran situation.  We will later discuss war powers.

Questions on the assignment?

Further thoughts on simulation committees?  For your writeup, everybody pick two and tell why they would be good for our purposes.  On Monday, I will announce the committees and roles.  On Wednesday, you will choose the roles.

Most bills die. Go to Vital Statistics on Congress  and look at chapter 6.  In the 118th Congress:

House -- Ratio of passed/introduced = 995 /12,547 ≈ 0.079 or 7.9%

Senate --  Ratio of passed/introduced = 1,029/6,759 ≈ 0.152 or 15.2%

Why do so many members introduce so many doomed bills?

Committee chairs

                                House                                    Senate

Main Factor	Party steering committee choice	Seniority on the committee
Republican Term Limits	6 years (3 terms)	6 years (3 terms)
Democratic Term Limits	None	None
Final Approval	Voted by party caucus/conference	Voted by party conference

Committee basics

• In the House, subcommittees are usually the first stop
• Chairs set the agenda, in consultation with the majority

Hearings

• Legislative hearings 
• Oversight hearings
• Celebrity Witnesses -- a partial list 

Markup

Committee Reports

• A committee report on eliminating useless reports

Rules Committee (Davidson 222-225 of print ed.)

• House Rules 
• Types of Rules
• 118th Congress data here.
• Beating the Rule
• The suspension calendar 
• Discharge petitions (229-230) and the Epstein bill

Senate Rules  

• Unanimous consent agreements (Davidson 236-238)
• Filibuster
• Cloture

Committees and Bills

The assignment.

For next time, ch. 8

The most reassuring video I will show you all semester:

Simulation committees?

Think about where you come from.  If you were a House member from that district, what committees would you want?

The committee system

• How members end up on committees
• "Steering committees" in House & Senate (Davidson pp. 190-195 of print ed)
• Speaker-appointed House committees: Rules, House Administration, Intelligence
• Seniority and other criteria
• Removals:  The case of Ilhan Omar
• House and Senate jurisdictions are not quite the same.

LEGISLATION REALLY CAN PASS (more later)

Bill Drafting 

• How an idea becomes a bill
• Types of measures
• Drafting guide
• An example of legislative language: BITCOIN Act of 2024)
• Senate Legislative Counsel
• House Legislative Counsel

Acronym Bills

• The EARN IT Act
• The STOP STUPIDITY Act
• The EL CHAPO Act
• The OMAR Act
• The NO CORRUPTION Act

Rules

• House Rules -- a guide
• Senate Rules

Do They Read The Bills? No.  

USA PATRIOT Act:  “Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism