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Sunday, February 1, 2026

Congressional Elections

Questions on the assignment?

Presentation Wednesday on the CMC Washington Program 

For Wednesday, Davidson ch. 5

Competition

  • Incumbents Usually Win -- House and Senate
  • House and Senate margins  

    • Control

  • Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party
  • Since 1994:  control is in play, majorities are usually narrow.
  • In 2024, GOP won the aggregate popular vote for the House.
  • The historical pattern:




    • Turnout

    Demographics:  Rock the Vote in 2018 and 2020
    Always lower in midterms.  Why?

    The House

  • Overview  -- the game
  • Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating
  • The gerrymander game
  • Race and education:  the four quadrants
  • Crossover districts

    • The Senate

  • Senate classes (last year was a "class 1" election)
  • The vanishing of split delegations.  The 119th has just three:
    1. Maine:  Collins (R) and King (I)
    2. Wisconsin: Johnson (R) and Baldwin (D)
    3. Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) and McCormick (R)

    Campaign Finance

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