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I shall post videos, graphs, news stories, and other material there. We shall use some of this material in class, and you may review the rest at your convenience. You will all receive invitations to post to the blog. (Please let me know if you do not get such an invitation.) I encourage you to use the blog in these ways:
To post questions or comments about the readings before we discuss them in class;
To follow up on class discussions with additional comments or questions.
To post relevant news items or videos.

There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges.


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Sunday, February 1, 2026

Congressional Elections

Questions on the assignment?

Presentation Wednesday on the CMC Washington Program 

For Wednesday, Davidson ch. 5

Competition

  • Incumbents Usually Win -- House and Senate
  • House and Senate margins  

  • Control

  • Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party
  • Since 1994:  control is in play, majorities are usually narrow.
  • In 2024, GOP won the aggregate popular vote for the House.
  • The historical pattern:




  • Turnout

    Demographics:  Rock the Vote in 2018 and 2020

    The House

  • Overview  -- the game
  • Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating
  • The gerrymander game
  • Race and education:  the four quadrants
  • Crossover districts
  • The Senate

  • Senate classes (last year was a "class 1" election)
  • The vanishing of split delegations.  The 119th has just three:
    1. Maine:  Collins (R) and King (I)
    2. Wisconsin: Johnson (R) and Baldwin (D)
    3. Pennsylvania: Fetterman (D) and McCormick (R)

    Campaign Finance

    First Assignment, Spring 2026

    Answer one of the following two options:

    Option 1

    Chapter 3 of the Davidson book begins with a short vignette about Rep. Derek Tran to introduce its core themes of ambition and recruitment. Write a replacement opening vignette featuring a different House member who won a first term in the 2024 electionIn your vignette:

    • Identify one specific decision point in this member’s path to office (e.g., whether and when to run at all, which seat to pursue).
    • Tell why you chose this particular member, and how this case highlights something that Tran’s vignette does not.
    • Analyze how this member’s experience illustrates or complicates arguments in the sections “Becoming a Candidate” and “Nominating Politics,” citing at least two specific passages from the book. This part is most important.
    • Briefly note one fact or episode you encountered in your research that would not typically appear in a textbook vignette but sheds light on this member’s recruitment or nomination. 
    Do not simply summarize the member’s biography or election results. Your job is to write something the authors could plausibly adopt, and to explain why.


    Option 2

    Choose one current congressional leader (Johnson, Jeffries, Thune, or Schumer) and write a postscript to Chapter 6 of the Davidson book. Your postscript should:
    • Identify one specific moment since January 2025 when this leader faced a choice that tested party unity, procedural control, or bargaining leverage.
    • Quote and cite at least two specific passages from the chapter that are most relevant to that moment.
    • Explain how the leader’s behavior confirms, complicates, or contradicts the theory of conditional party government.  This part is most important.
    Use at least three primary sources (e.g., floor statements, press releases, leadership letters, official transcripts).  In a short concluding paragraph, quote one sentence from Chapter 6 that the authors might revise if they were writing the next edition. Justify your choice.

    Essays should reflect an understanding of class readings and discussions. Many resources, including CQ Magazine are at Library/Databases/CQ Library.  You must consult other sources as well. See, among others: 

    Read Strunk & White and my stylesheet (with links to model papers).

    The specifications:
    • Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than three pages long. I will not read past the third page. 
    • Please submit all papers in this course as Word documents, not Google docs or pdfs.
    • Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style.  Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
    • Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism and will result in severe consequences
    • Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays to the Canvas dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Friday, February 13. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email me the paper as an attached file.)  I reserve the right to dock papers one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

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