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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Two Congresses, Two Parties, Two Elected Branches, Two Chambers (And Four Strategic Postures)


Two Congresses:  Hill Style and Home Style



"What you have to understand about my people is that they are a noble people. Humility is their form of pride. It is their strength; it is their weakness. And if you can humble yourself before them they will do anything you ask."  -- Frank Underwood

In Home Style, members try to convey

  • Qualification
  • Identification
  • Empathy

See a 1993 clip of McCain talking to little old ladies in Arizona.

Parties

Demographic sorting

Image result for faces republican democratic white congress


Four Strategic Postures Since 2000 (House, by election year) -- different way of looking at Thurber, p. 14.

                                                Majority                      Minority

            Pres Party                    Dems 08                    GOP 06, 18
                                                GOP 00, 02, 04, 16    Dem 10,12,14
           
            Out Party                    GOP 10,12,14             GOP 08
                                                Dem 06, 18                 Dem 00, 02, 04, 16




A second look at Federalist 51:
But it is not possible to give to each department an equal power of self-defense. In republican government, the legislative authority necessarily predominates. The remedy for this inconveniency is to divide the legislature into different branches; and to render them, by different modes of election and different principles of action, as little connected with each other as the nature of their common functions and their common dependence on the society will admit. It may even be necessary to guard against dangerous encroachments by still further precautions.
From the Census
The average size of a congressional  district based on the 2010 Census  apportionment population will be  710,767, more than triple the average  district size of 210,328 based on the  1910 Census apportionment, and 63,815  more than the average size based on  Census 2000 (646,952). Based on the  2010 Census apportionment, the state  with the largest average district size will  be Montana (994,416), and the state with  the smallest average district size will be  Rhode Island (527,624).
One major difference between the chambers is that few House members run for president, and seldom get far when they do. But a fairly large fraction of senators have gone for the White House:
  • Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 1996, 2000
  • Cory Booker (D-NJ) 2020?
  • Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 2020?
  • Ted Cruz (R-TX) 2016
  • Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 2020
  • Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 2016
  • Kamala Harris (D-CA), 2020
  • Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 2020?
  • Rand Paul (R-KY) 2016
  • Marco Rubio (R-FL) 2016
  • Bernard Sanders (I-VT) 2016, 2020?
  • Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2020
In the House, see
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