Congressional Elections IV: The Big Picture

Bill numbers.  REMEMBER THAT BILL NUMBERS START AFRESH WITH EACH NEW CONGRESS.  H.R. 1234 is the 112th Congress is not the same as H.R> 1234 in the 113th Congress.

Why relatively little on TV?  Consider districts and DMAs

Other elements of campaigning

• Direct mail
• Berman-Sherman and GOP voters
• California slate mailers
• Microtargeting and where Cambridge Analytica gets its psychological data
• Mail ballots

Party Strategy:  Back to the Four Postures (years indicate status going into election)

                                                Majority                      Minority

            Pres Party                   GOP in 06                   GOP in 08

                                               Dems in 10                  Dems in 12, 14, 16

           

            Out Party                    GOP in 12, 14             GOP in 10

                                               Dems in 08                  Dems in 06

All politics is national:

• The 1980 campaign 
• Dems in 1982
• The Contract with America
• Tying incumbent to unpopular figures

All politics is local:  incumbent protection