Adjourn at 10:35 for preliminary meetings. From my presidency course, recruit a president and cabinet members.
Iran attack, politics, and war powers
Questions on the assignment?
For Wednesday, read
- Russell Berman, "The Shadow Congress," The Atlantic, February 20, 2022.
- Plus: "The Best-Kept Secret in Washington," a short dialogue between Kevin R. Kosar at the AEI website. ("Secret Congress" means the same thing as "Shadow Congress.")
Types of deals
- Distributive
- Integrative
- "The ankle bone is connected to the shoulder bone." Meaning?
- In 1957, LBJ gives support to Hells Canyon power project in exchange for votes for the 1957 Civil Rights Act.
- In 1964, as president, he gets Rep. Wayne Hays to vote for a farm bill in exchange for freight rates.
Other conditions of negotiation
Parties
- Calculation for majority: which minority votes do you seek first?
- Calculation for minority: deal or fight? Internal political pressure: bombthrowers v. responsible partners.
- Messaging: selling the agreement to the relucant. Again, LBJ and the 1957 Civil Rights Act.
What are the costs and benefits of transparency?
Expertise and acceptable sources of information.
- "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"
- Stipulated knowledge and CBO.
- Knowledge levels of members
Repeated interactions
- Short-term: confidence building
- Longer term: reputations, grudges, and the Favor Bank
- How does partisanship hinder interaction? Workaround: "gangs."
Penalty defaults
- Debt ceiling: alum explains why it was problematic in 2023)
- The agreement led to McCarthy's ouster.
Policy Windows
- Disasters: 9/11
- Books & articles about existing problems
- Political shifts. But note LBJ's words to David Halberstam:
When you win big you can have anything you want for a time. You come home with that big landslide and there isn’t a one of them [in Congress] who’ll stand in your way. No, they’ll be glad to be aboard and to have their photograph taken with you and be part of all that victory. They’ll come along and they’ll give you almost everything you want for a while and then they’ll turn on you. They always do. They’ll lay in waiting, waiting for you to make a slip and you will. They’ll give you almost everything and then they’ll make you pay for it. They’ll get tired of all those columnists writing how smart you are and how weak they are and then the pendulum will swing back.
