Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Elections

Ads

For Thursday, Davidson ch. 5

Competition

  • Incumbents Usually Win -- House and Senate
  • House and Senate margins  

    • Control

  • Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party
  • Since 1994:  control is in play, majorities are usually narrow.
  • In 2022, GOP won the aggregate popular vote for the House.
  • The historical pattern:



    • The House

  • Overview  -- the game
  • Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating
  • GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts
  • Crossover districts

    • The Senate

  • Senate classes (last year was a "class 3" election)
  • The vanishing of split delegations.  The 118th has just five:
    1. Maine:  Collins (R) and King (I)
    2. Montana: Tester (D) and Daines (R)
    3. Ohio:  Brown (D) and Vance (R)
    4. WV:  Manchin (D) and Capito (R)
    5. Wisconsin: Johnson (R) and Baldwin (D)

    Campaign Finance

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