Congressional Elections I

LAT article on home style and impeachment.

Competition

Incumbents Usually Win -- 2020

House and Senate margins  

Recruitment

• Notwithstanding 2018, GOP "bench" in 2020 was stronger than in the past

Control

Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party

The House

Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating

Unintentional gerrymandering -- NYT article

The dramatic decline in districts with split results

GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts

Democrats have surged in suburbs

The Senate

Senate classes (last year was a "class 2" election)

The vanishing of split delegations

Strategery!

• Party identification, party brand

Campaign Finance

"Hard money" contribution limits

Outside spending