Congressional Elections I

Simulation:  last  year's roles

CMC alum running for Congress:



Her main primary opponent also has a terrific ad:


Citizenship and the Census -- A CMC alum in the news -- after death!




Competition

Incumbents Usually Win 

House margins  

Senate margins

Slight decline in 2018

Control

Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party

Senate classes (this year is a "class 2" election)

Notwithstanding 2018, GOP "bench" is stronger than in the past

The House

Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating

Unintentional gerrymandering -- NYT article

Dramatic decline in districts with split results

GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts

Democrats have surged in suburbs

Strategery!

Party identification, party brand

Campaign Finance

"Hard money" contribution limits

Outside spending

New element:  digital ads