Congressional Elections: The Big Picture

The Big Picture

• Incumbents Usually Win 
• House margins
• Senate margins
• Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party
• Senate classes
• Notwithstanding 2018, GOP "bench" is stronger than in the past

The House

• Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating
• Unintentional gerrymandering -- recent NYT article
• GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts

Strategy

Party identification, party brand

Dramatic decline in districts with split results

Campaign Finance

"Hard money" contribution limits

Outside spending

New element:  digital ads