The popular vote count is not over, but Clinton is ahead in the (legally-meaningless) count.
The clustering phenomenon affects presidential races as well as House races.
The clustering phenomenon affects presidential races as well as House races.
In Detroit, Hillary Clinton’s winning margin was 90,000 votes smaller than President Barack Obama’s in 2012. In Flint, Mich., where a water crises drew visits by both presidential candidates, the Democratic 2012 winning margin of 57,000 votes was cut by two-thirds.
Turnout was down Tuesday, preliminary estimates show, but not uniformly. In urban areas that drive the Democratic tally in much of the industrial Midwest, there were signs African-American enthusiasm for Mr. Obama didn’t fully transfer to Mrs. Clinton.Paul Herrnson (p. 268): "Once an election is over, candidates and their campaign staffs have a chance to reflect. Their main concern, naturally, is what caused the election to turn out as it did."
In some of the smaller communities that powered Republican Donald Trump to victory, meanwhile, turnout appeared to rise. The number of votes cast statewide rose in Pennsylvania and Florida—formerly Democratic states that Mr. Trump won—as well as in Michigan, where he was maintaining a lead.
But nationwide, fewer voters went to the polls. Mr. Trump appeared to have won the election, in fact, with fewer votes than GOP nominee Mitt Romney drew in his losing 2012 race. Mr. Trump in preliminary totals had about 59.6 million votes, 1.6 million shy of his party’s total in the last election.
Two Parties, Four Postures (a look back from September 8)
Four Strategic Postures Since 2000 (House, by election year)
Majority Minority
Pres Party Dems 08 GOP 06
GOP 00, 02, 04 Dem 10,12,14
GOP 16
GOP 16
Out Party GOP 10,12,14 GOP 08
Dem 06 Dem 00, 02,04
Dem 16
The next midterm:
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