How Harry Reid - and Democrats - Might Avoid Losing

Politico reports that Harry Reid may have a third party challenger: a group calling themselves the Tea Partiers have qualified for the November ballot in Nevada and are close to nominating a candidate for US Senate.

Right now Reid is trailing any of three GOP challengers by about 10 points, garnering slightly more than 40% of the vote. Until this morning, I would have bet large sums of money that he would lose his seat.

But if the Tea Party challenger and the GOP challenger split the conservative vote, Harry Reid can win. If Tea Partiers put up third party candidates in a handful of close races, Democrats could stave off disaster.

EDIT: just saw that Evan Bayh is retiring. Interesting considering that he was crushing opponents in polls, but he's pretty fed up with Congress. So that's another Democratic seat that, like North Dakota, is probably flipping with the incumbent out.